How does Trendshare evaluate INCY as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to INCY: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 122.27.

Incyte Corporation Stock Price and Value Analysis

Incyte Corporation (NasdaqGS:INCY) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: INCY (NasdaqGS)
Current price: $122.27
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Diagnostics & Research

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Incyte Corporation to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

INCY Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for INCY — Free Cash Flow trendline for Incyte Corporation

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that Incyte Corporation can grow its free cash at a rate of about 12%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
This company is making money at a great rate! This company is solid.	This company has wild ups and downs. This stock looks overpriced.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the INCY Numbers

	INCY Price (Incyte Corporation stock price per share)	$122.27
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	207% higher than other Healthcare stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	71% lower than other Diagnostics & Research stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	0.53%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	122%

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 10,649,327 shares shorted. With 171,555,617 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 1,979,340, it would take at least 5.4 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate INCY

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2009	879169	12.0
2010	879169	95.7
2011	879169	-164.5
2012	879169	-97.6
2013	879169	6.1
2014	879169	17.7
2015	879169	76.5
2016	879169	268.5
2017	879169	-150.9
2018	879169	264.5
2019	879169	628.9
2020	879169	-238.6
2021	879169	623.3
2022	879169	850.4
2023	879169	391.6
2024	879169	246.1
2025	879169	1361.7

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

At $122.27, the price is above our fair value estimate of $43.04 for Incyte Corporation.

Incyte Corporation reported positive free cash flow in 13 of the 17 fiscal years we have from its current SEC filer.

Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, with a variability measure of 122%.

These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They are not a recommendation to buy or sell. See how we estimate value.

No dividend yield is recorded for Incyte Corporation in our data.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 207% above the average for stocks in the Healthcare sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is 71% below the average for stocks in the Diagnostics & Research industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 879169.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 4 of the 17 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in INCY

Does Incyte Corporation have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 122.27
- Market cap: $25B
- EPS: 1.96
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 62.383
- FCF yield: 0.5%
- Date checked: Nov 12, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.