Harley-Davidson Stock Price and Value Analysis

Should you buy Harley-Davidson stock? (NYSE:HOG). Let's see how it does in our automated value investing analysis system.

HOG Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for HOG
Free Cash Flow trendline for Harley-Davidson

Based on historical returns, we believe that Harley-Davidson can grow its free cash at a rate of about 1%. That's positive!

AdvantagesDisadvantages
  • This company is very stable.
  • This stock is available at a great discount!
  • This company has a low dividend yield.
  • This company has wild ups and downs.
  • This company is making money at a modest rate.

Inside the HOG Numbers

HOG Price
(Harley-Davidson stock price per share)
$34.97
[?] HOG Fair Price
(based on intrinsic value)
$56.91
[?] HOG Safety Price (based on a variable margin of safety) $45.53
[?] PE Ratio versus Sector 227% higher than other Consumer Goods stocks
[?] PE Ratio versus Industry 97% higher than other Recreational Vehicles stocks
[?] Cash Yield 21.30%
[?] Free Cash Flow Jitter 60%
[?] Dividend Yield 2%
Shares Shorted 18,245,446

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 18,245,446 shares shorted. With 142,886,716 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 1,503,085, it would take at least 12.139 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

What does this mean to you? At this volume, it'll take more than two trading weeks for shorts to cover. This may indicate a short squeeze play would work! If this stock has good fundamentals and it'll take a while for the short holders to cover, buying now could net you bigger short-term technical gains if and as the price rises.

Is Harley-Davidson Stock on Sale?

We believe that Harley-Davidson may be worth examining further. It's making money, which is a very positive sign. Is it on sale?

Even better, Harley-Davidson looks like a stock on sale. Based on our analysis—if the company keeps making money the way it has been—you may be looking at a bargain. Keep this stock in mind as you put together your portfolio! See Before You Buy for your next steps (and read our disclaimer about investing risk).

Should You Buy HOG Stock?

Does Harley-Davidson have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.