How does Trendshare evaluate GEVO as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to GEVO: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 1.57.

Gevo Stock Price and Value Analysis

Gevo (NasdaqCM:GEVO) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: GEVO (NasdaqCM)
Current price: $1.57
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Chemicals

Advertisement helps keep Trendshare free for most readers.

Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Gevo to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

GEVO Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for GEVO — Free Cash Flow trendline for Gevo

Hmm, we can't give any reliable projection for Gevo's growth rate. The company either has too few years of historical data for us to examine, or it's in the habit of losing money.

None of this means it's a bad stock. Maybe it's new and growing quickly, or maybe it's turning things around. We can't say anything sensible about it, so we won't say it's obviously undervalued right now. Proceed at your own risk!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
This company is solid. This company has fluctuating growth.	This company is not making money. This stock looks overpriced.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the GEVO Numbers

	GEVO Price (Gevo stock price per share)	$1.57
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	100% lower than other Basic Materials stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	100% lower than other Chemicals stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	-31.04%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	34%

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 25,850,924 shares shorted. With 227,570,520 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 2,123,590, it would take at least 12.2 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

What does this mean to you? At this volume, it'll take more than two trading weeks for shorts to cover. This may indicate a short squeeze play would work! If this stock has good fundamentals and it'll take a while for the short holders to cover, buying now could net you bigger short-term technical gains if and as the price rises.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate GEVO

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2009	1392380	-19.1
2010	1392380	-22.8
2011	1392380	-37.5
2012	1392380	-84.1
2013	1392380	-61.9
2014	1392380	-54.2
2015	1392380	-43.5
2016	1392380	-35.4
2017	1392380	-25.4
2018	1392380	-19.1
2019	1392380	-24.4
2020	1392380	-23.9
2021	1392380	-70.6
2022	1392380	-83.1
2023	1392380	-102.9
2024	1392380	-115.5
2025	1392380	-76.3

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

We do not estimate a fair value for Gevo while its free cash flow growth is not positive, so there is no value comparison here.

Free cash flow was negative in every one of the 17 fiscal years we have for Gevo under its current filer.

Free cash flow is uneven from year to year, with a variability measure of 34%.

Our value investing guide explains how to test these numbers against the filings themselves.

Dividends are not in our data for Gevo.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 100% below the average for stocks in the Basic Materials sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is 100% below the average for stocks in the Chemicals industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 1392380.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 17 of the 17 years we have.
We have no value estimate for this stock, so no price comparison is made.
This page's data was last updated on 2026-09-18. Prices and filings may have changed since.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

Advertisement supports free stock analysis content.

Questions to Answer Before You Invest in GEVO

Does Gevo have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 1.57
- Market cap: $388M
- EPS: -0.9
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: —
- FCF yield: -31.0%
- Date checked: Sep 18, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.