How does Trendshare evaluate MIK as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to MIK: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 21.78.

The Michaels Companies Stock Price and Value Analysis

Should you buy The Michaels Companies stock? (NasdaqGS:MIK). Let's see how it does in our automated value investing analysis system.

Key Facts

Ticker: MIK (NasdaqGS)
Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Specialty Retail

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold The Michaels Companies to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
None.	This company is less known than others. This company is making money at a modest rate. This company has wild ups and downs. This stock looks overpriced.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the MIK Numbers

	MIK Price (The Michaels Companies stock price per share)	$21.78
× Present Value/Intrinsic Valuation The intrinsic value of a company is how much cash it can generate over its lifespan. If a business lasts for ten years and produces a million dollars of free cash profit every year, its intrinsic value is ten million dollars. The present value of an investment is the price you must pay right now to earn that intrinsic value in however many years you want to wait. This of course depends on the rate of return you want for your investment. You can't predict what a company will make in the future with perfect accuracy, but a company with a history of increasing its free cash flow every year is likely to do so over time. By projecting free cash flow into the future, you can calculate a fair price for the stock right now. While most stocks are priced fairly, sometimes they go on sale. This calculation will help you decide that. You still have to figure out if it's a good investment, but bargains exist. Close ^[?]	MIK Fair Price (based on intrinsic value)	$-9.80
× Safety Margin Price The safety margin of a stock helps you avoid risk. Why? Because the discounted free cash flow analysis relies on estimates, discounting the fair price by a further safety margin gives you some wiggle room to be wrong about those estimates. Established companies with stable free cash flow growth need a small safety margin. Smaller and newer and riskier companies need a larger safety margin. A company with a lot of debt needs a larger safety margin and a company with a lot of equity needs less. By investing in multiple companies and keeping a sensible safety margin, you can be pleasantly surprised by great companies outperforming your expectations and minimize the possibility of stagnation (or even loss) by companies which underperform. Close ^[?]	MIK Safety Price (based on a variable margin of safety)	$-5.88
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	4% higher than other Consumer Goods stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	0% lower than other Specialty Retail stocks
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	80%

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 14,462,004 shares shorted. With 91,852,988 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 16,800,771, it would take at least 0.861 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Should You Buy MIK?

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Continue Learning: Value Investing Guides

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Should Value Investors Pursue High-Yield Stocks?

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How to Estimate Growth or Forecast Earnings

Master the methods for projecting company growth rates and earnings, essential for calculating intrinsic value with confidence.

Is The Michaels Companies Stock on Sale?

We believe that The Michaels Companies may be worth examining further. It's making money, which is a very positive sign. Is it on sale?

The Michaels Companies looks overpriced right now. If you're looking for a bargain in the stock market, you should probably look elsewhere for a great deal. This might still be a great stock to own—but it's not on sale right now.

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Should You Buy MIK Stock?

Does The Michaels Companies have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 21.78
- Market cap: $3.1B
- EPS: 1.98
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 14.56
- FCF yield: —
- Date checked: Dec 25, 2025
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.

Illustrative sparkline of recent price-like movements (not an actual price series). The blue line shows a simplified trend; the gray baseline is a notional recent level. This graphic is a visual aid only — use the numeric values in the steps above for decisions.