How does Trendshare evaluate FSBW as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to FSBW: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 43.09.

FS Bancorp Stock Price and Value Analysis

FS Bancorp (NasdaqCM:FSBW) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: FSBW (NasdaqCM)
Current price: $43.09
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Savings & Loans
Dividend yield: 2.67%

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold FS Bancorp to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
3%

FSBW Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for FSBW — Free Cash Flow trendline for FS Bancorp

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that FS Bancorp can grow its free cash at a rate of about 1%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages
This company has a high dividend yield.	This company has wild ups and downs. This company is less known than others. This company is making money at a modest rate. This stock looks overpriced.

Inside the FSBW Numbers

	FSBW Price (FS Bancorp stock price per share)	$43.09
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	12% lower than other Financial Services stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	64% lower than other Savings & Loans stocks
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	136%
× Dividend Yield The dividend yield of a stock is the amount of money paid out in dividends every year divided by the stock's current price. While not every stock pays a dividend, many solid companies pay good dividends. In general, the higher this calculation, the better—think of it like an interest rate of an investment—if the company pays dividends consistently. A high dividend payout rate may indicate that the share price has fallen recently. Be sure that the company is worth investing in before you chase high dividend yields! Close ^[?]	Dividend Yield	3% (tax impact)
	Shares Shorted	157,794

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 157,794 shares shorted. With 6,543,712 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 31,190, it would take at least 5.1 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate FSBW

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2011	1530249	3.3
2012	1530249	-3.3
2013	1530249	3.7
2014	1530249	-6.0
2015	1530249	-9.0
2016	1530249	1.2
2017	1530249	13.3
2018	1530249	19.3
2019	1530249	6.7
2020	1530249	-34.8
2021	1530249	106.9
2022	1530249	182.7
2023	1530249	75.9
2024	1530249	49.2
2025	1530249	66.9

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Of the 15 fiscal years we can see for FS Bancorp under its current filer, 11 show positive free cash flow.

Comparing the first and last three years of data, average free cash flow rose sharply: $1.3 million at the start and $64.0 million most recently.

Year-to-year variability in free cash flow is volatile, measured at 136%.

Our fair value estimate for FS Bancorp is $39.07, below its current price of $43.09.

The dividend yield for FS Bancorp is 2.67%.

Our value investing guide explains how to test these numbers against the filings themselves.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 12% below the average for stocks in the Financial Services sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is 64% below the average for stocks in the Savings & Loans industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 1530249.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 4 of the 15 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in FSBW

Does FS Bancorp have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 43.09
- Market cap: $339M
- EPS: 3.73
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 11.554
- FCF yield: —
- Date checked: Nov 12, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.