How does Trendshare evaluate ALCO as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to ALCO: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 37.82.

Alico Stock Price and Value Analysis

Alico (NasdaqGS:ALCO) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: ALCO (NasdaqGS)
Current price: $37.82
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Farm Products
Dividend yield: 0.52%

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Alico to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
1%

ALCO Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for ALCO — Free Cash Flow trendline for Alico

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that Alico can grow its free cash at a rate of about 1%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages
This stock is available at a great discount! This company is solid.	This company has wild ups and downs. This company is making money at a modest rate. This company has a low dividend yield.

Inside the ALCO Numbers

	ALCO Price (Alico stock price per share)	$37.82
× Present Value/Intrinsic Valuation The intrinsic value of a company is how much cash it can generate over its lifespan. If a business lasts for ten years and produces a million dollars of free cash profit every year, its intrinsic value is ten million dollars. The present value of an investment is the price you must pay right now to earn that intrinsic value in however many years you want to wait. This of course depends on the rate of return you want for your investment. You can't predict what a company will make in the future with perfect accuracy, but a company with a history of increasing its free cash flow every year is likely to do so over time. By projecting free cash flow into the future, you can calculate a fair price for the stock right now. While most stocks are priced fairly, sometimes they go on sale. This calculation will help you decide that. You still have to figure out if it's a good investment, but bargains exist. Close ^[?]	ALCO Fair Price (based on intrinsic value)	$89.25
× Safety Margin Price The safety margin of a stock helps you avoid risk. Why? Because the discounted free cash flow analysis relies on estimates, discounting the fair price by a further safety margin gives you some wiggle room to be wrong about those estimates. Established companies with stable free cash flow growth need a small safety margin. Smaller and newer and riskier companies need a larger safety margin. A company with a lot of debt needs a larger safety margin and a company with a lot of equity needs less. By investing in multiple companies and keeping a sensible safety margin, you can be pleasantly surprised by great companies outperforming your expectations and minimize the possibility of stagnation (or even loss) by companies which underperform. Close ^[?]	ALCO Safety Price (based on a variable margin of safety)	$58.01
	Try your own return The fair price above uses a 10.1% discount rate, the long-run US stock return (10.1% geometric, 1926 to 2025, from Bessembinder's working paper, updated 2026-11-09), and 2.5% terminal growth. A higher rate suits a higher return target and gives a lower value. Discount rate (%) Terminal growth (%) Value per share:
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	50% lower than other Consumer Defensive stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	45% lower than other Farm Products stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	13.05%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	467%
× Dividend Yield The dividend yield of a stock is the amount of money paid out in dividends every year divided by the stock's current price. While not every stock pays a dividend, many solid companies pay good dividends. In general, the higher this calculation, the better—think of it like an interest rate of an investment—if the company pays dividends consistently. A high dividend payout rate may indicate that the share price has fallen recently. Be sure that the company is worth investing in before you chase high dividend yields! Close ^[?]	Dividend Yield	1% (tax impact)
	Shares Shorted	158,338

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

Recent Insider Activity

Open-market buys and sells reported by Alico's officers, directors, and 10% owners on SEC Form 4. Routine transactions (tax withholding, option exercises, and stock grants) are excluded -- these are discretionary trades only.

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Price
2021-10-13	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	533	$34.50
2021-10-08	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	2,200	$34.72
2021-10-05	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	4,808	$34.59
2021-10-04	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	438	$34.50
2021-10-01	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	1,144	$34.53
2021-09-30	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	110	$34.60
2021-09-29	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	4,500	$34.60
2021-09-28	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	7,000	$34.61
2021-09-27	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	9,717	$34.68
2021-09-23	Arlon Valencia Holdings LLC	Sell	3,437	$35.08

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 158,338 shares shorted. With 5,607,633 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 20,280, it would take at least 7.8 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate ALCO

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2009	3545	9.7
2010	3545	-0.3
2011	3545	7.7
2012	3545	12.9
2013	3545	1.0
2014	3545	11.3
2015	3545	19.3
2016	3545	15.6
2017	3545	13.2
2018	3545	4.8
2019	3545	33.7
2020	3545	-16.1
2021	3545	-6.1
2022	3545	-17.6
2023	3545	-30.5
2024	3545	-54.3
2025	3545	-0.4

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Alico reported positive free cash flow in 10 of the 17 fiscal years we have from its current SEC filer.

At $37.82, the stock is under our safe value of $58.01, against a fair value estimate of $89.25.

Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, with a variability measure of 467%.

Its dividend yield is 0.52%.

Before you act on any of this, read what a margin of safety means and check the company's own filings.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 50% below the average for stocks in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is 45% below the average for stocks in the Farm Products industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 3545.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 7 of the 17 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
This page's data was last updated on 2026-07-29. Prices and filings may have changed since.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in ALCO

Does Alico have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 37.82
- Market cap: $280M
- EPS: -2.44
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: —
- FCF yield: 13.0%
- Date checked: Jul 29, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.