How does Trendshare evaluate TSLA as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to TSLA: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 379.78.

Tesla Stock Price and Value Analysis

Tesla (NasdaqGS:TSLA) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: TSLA (NasdaqGS)
Current price: $379.78
Sector: Unknown
Industry: Unknown

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Tesla to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

TSLA Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for TSLA — Free Cash Flow trendline for Tesla

Hmm, we can't give any reliable projection for Tesla's growth rate. The company either has too few years of historical data for us to examine, or it's in the habit of losing money.

None of this means it's a bad stock. Maybe it's new and growing quickly, or maybe it's turning things around. We can't say anything sensible about it, so we won't say it's obviously undervalued right now. Proceed at your own risk!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
None.	This company has wild ups and downs. This company is not making money. This stock looks overpriced. This company is less known than others.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the TSLA Numbers

	TSLA Price (Tesla stock price per share)	$379.78
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	1035% higher than other Unknown stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	100% lower than other Unknown stocks
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	104%

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

Recent Insider Activity

Open-market buys and sells reported by Tesla's officers, directors, and 10% owners on SEC Form 4. Routine transactions (tax withholding, option exercises, and stock grants) are excluded -- these are discretionary trades only.

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Price
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	2,783	$375.96
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	3,721	$377.07
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	3,317	$377.97
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	1,725	$378.81
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	3,200	$380.12
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	5,000	$381.19
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	6,854	$382.04
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	5,364	$383.21
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	9,946	$384.29
2025-02-03	DENHOLM ROBYN M	Sell	2,810	$375.06

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 69,350,469 shares shorted. With 2,822,308,701 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 39,440,760, it would take at least 1.8 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate TSLA

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Only 9 of the 17 fiscal years under Tesla's current filer show positive free cash flow.

We do not estimate a fair value for Tesla while its free cash flow growth is not positive, so there is no value comparison here.

Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, with a variability measure of 104%.

No dividend yield is recorded for Tesla in our data.

These numbers change when new filings or prices arrive, so treat this page as a snapshot and check the company's own filings.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 1318605.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 8 of the 17 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
We have no value estimate for this stock, so no price comparison is made.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in TSLA

Does Tesla have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 379.78
- Market cap: $1.5T
- EPS: 0.91
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 417.341
- FCF yield: —
- Date checked: Nov 11, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.