How does Trendshare evaluate TGI as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to TGI: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 10.53.

Triumph Group Stock Price and Value Analysis

Triumph Group (NYSE:TGI) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: TGI (NYSE)
Current price: $10.53
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Triumph Group to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

TGI Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for TGI — Free Cash Flow trendline for Triumph Group

Hmm, we can't give any reliable projection for Triumph Group's growth rate. The company either has too few years of historical data for us to examine, or it's in the habit of losing money.

None of this means it's a bad stock. Maybe it's new and growing quickly, or maybe it's turning things around. We can't say anything sensible about it, so we won't say it's obviously undervalued right now. Proceed at your own risk!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
This company is solid.	This company has wild ups and downs. This company is not making money. This stock looks overpriced.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the TGI Numbers

	TGI Price (Triumph Group stock price per share)	$10.53
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	18% higher than other Industrials stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	6% higher than other Aerospace & Defense stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	75.84%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	1704%

Recent Insider Activity

Open-market buys and sells reported by Triumph Group's officers, directors, and 10% owners on SEC Form 4. Routine transactions (tax withholding, option exercises, and stock grants) are excluded -- these are discretionary trades only.

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Price
2025-03-13	Allen Jennifer H. (CAO, GC & Secretary)	Sell	35,000	$25.32
2024-06-06	EGNOTOVICH CYNTHIA M	Buy	10,000	$15.14
2024-06-04	Keating Neal J	Buy	7,500	$14.13
2024-06-04	Keating Neal J	Buy	2,500	$14.12
2024-02-09	Keating Neal J	Buy	7,200	$14.53

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 4,989,912 shares shorted. With 63,849,468 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 1,046,380, it would take at least 4.8 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate TGI

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in TGI

Does Triumph Group have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 10.53
- Market cap: $680M
- EPS: -8.681
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 15.51
- FCF yield: 75.8%
- Date checked: Jul 27, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.