How does Trendshare evaluate SAM as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to SAM: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 222.24.

The Boston Beer Company Stock Price and Value Analysis

The Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: SAM (NYSE)
Current price: $222.24
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Beverages - Brewers

Advertisement helps keep Trendshare free for most readers.

Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold The Boston Beer Company to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

SAM Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for SAM — Free Cash Flow trendline for The Boston Beer Company

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that The Boston Beer Company can grow its free cash at a rate of about 12%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
This company is solid. This company is making money at a great rate! This stock is available at a great discount!	This company has wild ups and downs.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the SAM Numbers

	SAM Price (The Boston Beer Company stock price per share)	$222.24
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	28% higher than other Consumer Defensive stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	126% higher than other Beverages - Brewers stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	6.10%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	51%

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 1,612,580 shares shorted. With 6,656,333 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 218,980, it would take at least 7.4 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate SAM

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2009	949870	48.6
2010	949870	52.5
2011	949870	56.0
2012	949870	66.3
2013	949870	56.6
2014	949870	70.9
2015	949870	86.2
2016	949870	65.7
2017	949870	54.1
2018	949870	90.6
2019	949870	117.1
2020	949870	179.1
2021	949870	-37.6
2022	949870	94.5
2023	949870	158.0
2024	949870	145.1
2025	949870	183.5

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Only 16 of the 17 fiscal years under The Boston Beer Company's current filer show positive free cash flow.

With the price at $222.24, The Boston Beer Company is below both our safe value ($379.17) and our fair value ($583.34).

Comparing the first and last three years of data, average free cash flow rose sharply: $52.4 million at the start and $162.2 million most recently.

Year-to-year variability in free cash flow is volatile, measured at 51%.

No dividend yield is recorded for The Boston Beer Company in our data.

These numbers change when new filings or prices arrive, so treat this page as a snapshot and check the company's own filings.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 28% above the average for stocks in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is 126% above the average for stocks in the Beverages - Brewers industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 949870.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 1 of the 17 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

Advertisement supports free stock analysis content.

Questions to Answer Before You Invest in SAM

Does The Boston Beer Company have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 222.24
- Market cap: $2.3B
- EPS: -6.8
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: —
- FCF yield: 6.1%
- Date checked: Nov 12, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.