How does Trendshare evaluate PROV as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to PROV: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 18.61.

Provident Financial Holdings Stock Price and Value Analysis

Provident Financial Holdings (NasdaqGS:PROV) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: PROV (NasdaqGS)
Current price: $18.61
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Savings & Loans
Dividend yield: 3.01%

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Provident Financial Holdings to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
3%

PROV Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for PROV — Free Cash Flow trendline for Provident Financial Holdings

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that Provident Financial Holdings can grow its free cash at a rate of about 1%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages
This stock is on sale. This company has a large dividend yield!	This company is making money at a modest rate. This company is less known than others. This company has wild ups and downs.

Inside the PROV Numbers

	PROV Price (Provident Financial Holdings stock price per share)	$18.61
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	36% higher than other Financial Services stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	0% lower than other Savings & Loans stocks
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	176%
× Dividend Yield The dividend yield of a stock is the amount of money paid out in dividends every year divided by the stock's current price. While not every stock pays a dividend, many solid companies pay good dividends. In general, the higher this calculation, the better—think of it like an interest rate of an investment—if the company pays dividends consistently. A high dividend payout rate may indicate that the share price has fallen recently. Be sure that the company is worth investing in before you chase high dividend yields! Close ^[?]	Dividend Yield	3% (tax impact)
	Shares Shorted	25,601

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 25,601 shares shorted. With 4,217,896 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 23,470, it would take at least 1.1 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate PROV

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2010	1010470	1.4
2011	1010470	-2.7
2012	1010470	-13.4
2013	1010470	54.0
2014	1010470	47.5
2015	1010470	-58.9
2016	1010470	46.5
2017	1010470	82.4
2018	1010470	26.6
2019	1010470	105.7
2020	1010470	6.6
2021	1010470	10.5
2022	1010470	11.0
2023	1010470	16.0
2024	1010470	5.1
2025	1010470	8.0
2026	1010470	8.3

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Positive free cash flow appears in 14 of the 17 fiscal years we hold for Provident Financial Holdings from its current SEC filer.

The price of $18.61 is above our safe value ($12.15) but still below the fair value estimate of $20.25 for Provident Financial Holdings.

Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, with a variability measure of 176%.

Its dividend yield is 3.01%.

Before you act on any of this, read what a margin of safety means and check the company's own filings.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 36% above the average for stocks in the Financial Services sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is in line with the average for stocks in the Savings & Loans industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 1010470.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 3 of the 17 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
This page's data was last updated on 2026-09-18. Prices and filings may have changed since.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in PROV

Does Provident Financial Holdings have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 18.61
- Market cap: $116M
- EPS: 1.03
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 18.068
- FCF yield: —
- Date checked: Sep 18, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.