How does Trendshare evaluate LWAY as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to LWAY: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 22.51.

Lifeway Foods Stock Price and Value Analysis

Lifeway Foods (NasdaqGM:LWAY) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: LWAY (NasdaqGM)
Current price: $22.51
Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Dairy Products

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Lifeway Foods to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

LWAY Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for LWAY — Free Cash Flow trendline for Lifeway Foods

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that Lifeway Foods can grow its free cash at a rate of about 5%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
This company is solid.	This company is making money at a modest rate. This company has wild ups and downs. This stock looks overpriced.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the LWAY Numbers

	LWAY Price (Lifeway Foods stock price per share)	$22.51
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	134% higher than other Consumer Goods stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	0% lower than other Dairy Products stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	1.98%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	93%

Insider Activity Summary

In the six months to 2026-11-12, 2 insiders bought in 4 trades, about $6.2 million, and 2 insiders sold in 20 trades, about $20.1 million.

The six months before that had no buys or sales.

Net open-market activity was sales of about $14.0 million.

Recent Insider Activity

Open-market buys and sells reported by Lifeway Foods's officers, directors, and 10% owners on SEC Form 4. Routine transactions (tax withholding, option exercises, and stock grants) are excluded -- these are discretionary trades only.

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Price
2026-08-19	SMOLYANSKY JULIE (CEO, President and Secretary)	Buy	2,000	$25.26
2026-08-17	Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP	Buy	35,952	$24.78
2026-08-14	SMOLYANSKY EDWARD	Sell	45,038	$25.82
2026-08-14	Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP	Buy	15,000	$24.69
2026-08-14	SMOLYANSKY EDWARD	Sell	31	$26.50
2026-08-14	SMOLYANSKY EDWARD	Sell	29,931	$24.89
2026-08-13	Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP	Buy	195,616	$24.87
2026-08-12	SMOLYANSKY EDWARD	Sell	35,000	$28.74
2026-07-22	SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA	Sell	60,000	$30.55
2026-07-22	SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA	Sell	40,000	$29.46

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 747,284 shares shorted. With 6,495,297 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 94,330, it would take at least 7.9 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate LWAY

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2010	814586	3.4
2011	814586	2.2
2012	814586	4.9
2013	814586	2.4
2014	814586	1.6
2015	814586	3.3
2016	814586	1.3
2017	814586	-0.7
2018	814586	-1.0
2019	814586	0.9
2020	814586	3.5
2021	814586	2.9
2022	814586	1.7
2023	814586	14.4
2024	814586	9.3
2025	814586	7.1

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Lifeway Foods reported positive free cash flow in 14 of the 16 fiscal years we have from its current SEC filer.

At $22.51, the price is above our fair value estimate of $12.73 for Lifeway Foods.

The latest three years average $10.3 million in free cash flow against $3.5 million for the earliest three, which is a sharp rise.

Year-to-year variability in free cash flow is volatile, measured at 93%.

Dividends are not in our data for Lifeway Foods.

Before you act on any of this, read what a margin of safety means and check the company's own filings.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 134% above the average for stocks in the Consumer Goods sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is in line with the average for stocks in the Dairy Products industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 814586.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow was negative in 2 of the 16 years we have.
Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in LWAY

Does Lifeway Foods have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 22.51
- Market cap: $340M
- EPS: 0.69
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 32.623
- FCF yield: 2.0%
- Date checked: Nov 12, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.