How does Trendshare evaluate DLTR as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to DLTR: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 111.96.

Dollar Tree Stock Price and Value Analysis

Dollar Tree (NasdaqGS:DLTR) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: DLTR (NasdaqGS)
Current price: $111.96
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Discount Stores

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Dollar Tree to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
N/A

DLTR Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for DLTR — Free Cash Flow trendline for Dollar Tree

Hmm, we can't give any reliable projection for Dollar Tree's growth rate. The company either has too few years of historical data for us to examine, or it's in the habit of losing money.

None of this means it's a bad stock. Maybe it's new and growing quickly, or maybe it's turning things around. We can't say anything sensible about it, so we won't say it's obviously undervalued right now. Proceed at your own risk!

Advantages	Disadvantages	Neutral
This company is very stable.	This company is not making money. This company has wild ups and downs. This stock looks overpriced.	This company pays no dividend.

Inside the DLTR Numbers

	DLTR Price (Dollar Tree stock price per share)	$111.96
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	84% higher than other Consumer Defensive stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	3% higher than other Discount Stores stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	4.06%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	506%

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 7,407,625 shares shorted. With 177,462,613 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 2,987,360, it would take at least 2.5 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate DLTR

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2008	935703	271.8
2009	935703	432.9
2010	935703	360.4
2011	935703	505.3
2012	935703	470.9
2013	935703	546.9
2014	935703	663.5
2015	935703	462.8
2016	935703	1270.7
2017	935703	1043.6
2018	935703	1202.0
2019	935703	1163.9
2020	935703	1926.8
2021	935703	550.7
2022	935703	732.6
2023	935703	1727.0
2024	935703	1182.6
2025	935703	1133.0

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Every one of the 18 fiscal years we have for Dollar Tree under its current filer shows positive free cash flow.

We do not estimate a fair value for Dollar Tree while its free cash flow growth is not positive, so there is no value comparison here.

Comparing the first and last three years of data, average free cash flow rose sharply: $355.1 million at the start and $1347.5 million most recently.

Year-to-year variability in free cash flow is volatile, measured at 506%.

Dividends are not in our data for Dollar Tree.

These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They are not a recommendation to buy or sell. See how we estimate value.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 84% above the average for stocks in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is 3% above the average for stocks in the Discount Stores industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 935703.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

Free cash flow is volatile from year to year, so the estimates depend heavily on which years are included.
We have no value estimate for this stock, so no price comparison is made.
This page's data was last updated on 2026-09-18. Prices and filings may have changed since.
These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in DLTR

Does Dollar Tree have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 111.96
- Market cap: $21B
- EPS: 8.16
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 13.721
- FCF yield: 4.1%
- Date checked: Sep 18, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.