How does Trendshare evaluate CBSH as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to CBSH: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 55.57.

Commerce Bancshares Stock Price and Value Analysis

Commerce Bancshares (NasdaqGS:CBSH) in our automated value investing analysis, with the cash flow history and price comparison below.

Key Facts

Ticker: CBSH (NasdaqGS)
Current price: $55.57
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks - Regional
Dividend yield: 1.94%

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold Commerce Bancshares to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
1.94%

CBSH Free Cash Flow Trend

Free Cash Flow trendline for CBSH — Free Cash Flow trendline for Commerce Bancshares

CSV

Based on historical returns, we believe that Commerce Bancshares can grow its free cash at a rate of about 1%. That's positive!

Advantages	Disadvantages
This company has an average dividend yield. This company has stable growth.	This company is less known than others. This stock looks overpriced. This company is making money at a modest rate.

Inside the CBSH Numbers

	CBSH Price (Commerce Bancshares stock price per share)	$55.57
× Present Value/Intrinsic Valuation The intrinsic value of a company is how much cash it can generate over its lifespan. If a business lasts for ten years and produces a million dollars of free cash profit every year, its intrinsic value is ten million dollars. The present value of an investment is the price you must pay right now to earn that intrinsic value in however many years you want to wait. This of course depends on the rate of return you want for your investment. You can't predict what a company will make in the future with perfect accuracy, but a company with a history of increasing its free cash flow every year is likely to do so over time. By projecting free cash flow into the future, you can calculate a fair price for the stock right now. While most stocks are priced fairly, sometimes they go on sale. This calculation will help you decide that. You still have to figure out if it's a good investment, but bargains exist. Close ^[?]	CBSH Fair Price (based on intrinsic value)	$48.86
× Safety Margin Price The safety margin of a stock helps you avoid risk. Why? Because the discounted free cash flow analysis relies on estimates, discounting the fair price by a further safety margin gives you some wiggle room to be wrong about those estimates. Established companies with stable free cash flow growth need a small safety margin. Smaller and newer and riskier companies need a larger safety margin. A company with a lot of debt needs a larger safety margin and a company with a lot of equity needs less. By investing in multiple companies and keeping a sensible safety margin, you can be pleasantly surprised by great companies outperforming your expectations and minimize the possibility of stagnation (or even loss) by companies which underperform. Close ^[?]	CBSH Safety Price (based on a variable margin of safety)	$29.32
	Try your own return The fair price above uses a 10.1% discount rate, the long-run US stock return (10.1% geometric, 1926 to 2025, from Bessembinder's working paper, updated 2026-11-09), and 2.5% terminal growth. A higher rate suits a higher return target and gives a lower value. Discount rate (%) Terminal growth (%) Value per share:
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	4% higher than other Financial Services stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	0% lower than other Banks - Regional stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	3.34%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	23%
× Dividend Yield The dividend yield of a stock is the amount of money paid out in dividends every year divided by the stock's current price. While not every stock pays a dividend, many solid companies pay good dividends. In general, the higher this calculation, the better—think of it like an interest rate of an investment—if the company pays dividends consistently. A high dividend payout rate may indicate that the share price has fallen recently. Be sure that the company is worth investing in before you chase high dividend yields! Close ^[?]	Dividend Yield	1.94% (tax impact)
	Shares Shorted	6,719,610

Insider Activity Summary

No open-market insider buys or sells are recorded for the last 12 months.

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 6,719,610 shares shorted. With 128,590,074 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 1,030,800, it would take at least 6.5 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Learn to Evaluate CBSH

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Free Cash Flow by Fiscal Year

Each year names the SEC filer that reported it, so a change of filer shows up here.

Fiscal year	SEC filer (CIK)	Free cash flow (USD millions)
2008	22356	174.7
2009	22356	259.4
2010	22356	641.1
2011	22356	379.4
2012	22356	354.6
2013	22356	336.2
2014	22356	332.4
2015	22356	260.1
2016	22356	423.2
2017	22356	395.6
2018	22356	519.8
2019	22356	480.2
2020	22356	591.1
2021	22356	558.4
2022	22356	513.2
2023	22356	431.6
2024	22356	520.0
2025	22356	583.4

Download the yearly data as CSV.

Price Versus Our Estimated Value

Commerce Bancshares is priced at $55.57, above our fair value estimate of $48.86 and its safe value of $29.32.

Free cash flow was positive in all 18 fiscal years we have for Commerce Bancshares under its current SEC filer.

Free cash flow from the first three years of data averaged $358.4 million, and from the last three $511.7 million: a sharp rise.

Year-to-year variability in free cash flow is fairly steady, measured at 23%.

Our value investing guide explains how to test these numbers against the filings themselves.

Commerce Bancshares pays a dividend yield of 1.94%.

Compared With Its Sector and Industry

Its trailing P/E ratio is 4% above the average for stocks in the Financial Services sector.

Its trailing P/E ratio is in line with the average for stocks in the Banks - Regional industry.

A P/E ratio depends on trailing earnings, which one-time items can distort, so a lower P/E is not by itself evidence of value.

SEC Filer History

Every fiscal year on this page is reported by one SEC filer, CIK 22356.

Each figure on this page comes from that filer.

Risks to This Analysis

These figures are automated calculations from SEC filings and the recent price. They may contain errors, and they do not reflect lawsuits, management changes, or other events the filings do not show.

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Questions to Answer Before You Invest in CBSH

Does Commerce Bancshares have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 55.57
- Market cap: $7.9B
- EPS: 4.15
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 13.39
- FCF yield: 3.3%
- Date checked: Nov 13, 2026
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.