How does Trendshare evaluate JOE as a worked example?

This example shows how we apply the Trendshare checklist to JOE: earnings power, cash generation, valuation, and margin of safety. We look at business quality, free cash flow trends, price to earnings, and whether there is a reasonable margin of safety at the current price of 37.19.

The St. Joe Company Stock Price and Value Analysis

Should you buy The St. Joe Company stock? (NYSE:JOE). Let's see how it does in our automated value investing analysis system.

Key Facts

Ticker: JOE (NYSE)
Sector: Unknown
Industry: Unknown
Dividend yield:

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Hold-time calculator

Estimate how long you need to hold The St. Joe Company to reach your target.

Target type Target price Target total return %

Current price

Expected annual return (compound annual growth rate, CAGR)

Margin of safety (%)

Target price (Trendshare FV)

Include dividend yield
1%

Advantages	Disadvantages
None.	This company is less known than others. This stock looks overpriced. This company has a low dividend yield. This company has wild ups and downs. This company is not making money.

Inside the JOE Numbers

	JOE Price (The St. Joe Company stock price per share)	$37.19
× PE Ratio Versus Sector The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its industry gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Industries are more specific than sectors, so companies within most industries are more similar than are companies within an industry. Be aware that the size and customers of companies are important to their prospects. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Sector	55% higher than other Unknown stocks
× PE Ratio Versus Industry The PE ratio measures the reported earnings of a company to its current stock price. While earnings are easy to manipulate on the balance sheet, this ratio gives you a sense of what buyers are willing to pay for the stock—what they believe it will do in the future. Comparing a stock's PE to the average PE of companies in its sector gives you a sense of market sentiment about the stock and how well it fares financially. It's not the only number, nor the most important, but comparing similar companies is valuable. A ratio far above or below that of its peers is significant. Be aware that sectors are very broad, with many types of companies in the same sector. Close ^[?]	PE Ratio versus Industry	104% higher than other Unknown stocks
× Cash Yield The cash yield of a stock is the ratio of free cash per share—real dollars available after bringing in revenue and paying bills—to the current price of the stock. It's similar to the PE ratio, but it's less prone to manipulation through accounting practices. In general, the less you have to pay to make more money, the better. Close ^[?]	Cash Yield	1.46%
× Free Cash Flow Jitter The free cash flow jitter of a stock measures how much the company's free cash flow varies from its historical trend, on average. While it's always nice to make more money than you expected, a company with predictable free cash flow is stable and good. A company with wild swings in its free cash flow warrants further research. In general, the lower this number, the better. Close ^[?]	Free Cash Flow Jitter	536%
× Dividend Yield The dividend yield of a stock is the amount of money paid out in dividends every year divided by the stock's current price. While not every stock pays a dividend, many solid companies pay good dividends. In general, the higher this calculation, the better—think of it like an interest rate of an investment—if the company pays dividends consistently. A high dividend payout rate may indicate that the share price has fallen recently. Be sure that the company is worth investing in before you chase high dividend yields! Close ^[?]	Dividend Yield	1% (tax impact)
	Shares Shorted	1,866,222

This stock has short interest! This means that people have shorted it.

Why does that matter? They've made a bet that price will decrease from where they bought it. Maybe there are financial problems, or maybe there's a value play.

As of the latest analysis, there are 1,866,222 shares shorted. With 32,435,728 shares available for purchase and an average trading volume over the past 10 trading days of 171,110, it would take at least 10.907 days for all of the short holders to cover their shorts.

What does this mean to you? At this volume, it'll take more than two trading weeks for shorts to cover. This may indicate a short squeeze play would work! If this stock has good fundamentals and it'll take a while for the short holders to cover, buying now could net you bigger short-term technical gains if and as the price rises.

Estimate Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Project future free cash flow and discount it back to today to compare market price vs intrinsic value. See how compound returns work over time.

📊 Intrinsic Value Calculator (DCF Method)

Calculate the present value of future cash flows to determine stock intrinsic value.

Annual Free Cash Flow ($):

Current or most recent year free cash flow (operating cash - capex)

Expected Annual Growth Rate (%):

Conservative estimate (3-7% for mature companies, 10-20% for growth)

Discount Rate (%):

Required rate of return (8-10% stable, 12-15% growth, 15%+ speculative)

Projection Period (Years):

Longer projections are less certain but may reveal more value

Terminal Value Multiple:

Exit multiple for terminal value (10-15x typical for mature companies)

Calculation Results

Total Intrinsic Value:

Discounted Cash Flows:

Terminal Value (PV):

Year	Future CF	Present Value

How to use this result: Compare the intrinsic value to the current stock price. If intrinsic value is significantly higher than market price (30-50% margin of safety), the stock may be undervalued. Remember, these are estimates based on your assumptions.

Should You Buy JOE?

Learn how to evaluate stocks, understand expected returns, and build a value investing strategy.

See How Returns Compound →

Continue Learning: Value Investing Guides

What is a Good Annual Rate of Return?

Understand how to evaluate investment returns, discount rates, and what realistic expectations look like for long-term value investing.

Should Value Investors Pursue High-Yield Stocks?

Learn when dividend yields signal opportunity versus risk, and how to evaluate dividend sustainability in your portfolio.

How to Estimate Growth or Forecast Earnings

Master the methods for projecting company growth rates and earnings, essential for calculating intrinsic value with confidence.

Is The St. Joe Company Stock on Sale?

Based on our analysis, we believe that you should not buy The St. Joe Company right now. It might be a good stock to own—we just can't prove it with value analysis right now. Proceed with caution.

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Should You Buy JOE Stock?

Does The St. Joe Company have a coherent story? Does it have a plan to continue to make money? Is it worth your time? Only you can decide where to go from here. Our investment guide helps you ask the right questions, including how to buy stocks. Use these research links for more information.

Step 1 — Snapshot
- Price: 37.19
- Market cap: $2.2B
- EPS: 0.848
Step 2 — Valuation checks
- P/E: 43.86
- FCF yield: 1.5%
- Date checked: Dec 2, 2025
Step 3 — Margin of safety
- Compare price to fair value and safety price.
- Look for durable cash generation and reasonable leverage.
- Decide if it passes your personal checklist.

Illustrative sparkline of recent price-like movements (not an actual price series). The blue line shows a simplified trend; the gray baseline is a notional recent level. This graphic is a visual aid only — use the numeric values in the steps above for decisions.