--- title: "What is a Good Annual Rate of Return?" description: "What is a good rate of return on investment? How much should your stocks grow every year? Everything you need to know to get the best ROI you can!" canonical_url: https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-a-good-annual-rate-of-return markdown_url: https://trendshare.org/ai/what-is-a-good-annual-rate-of-return.md published: 2014-07-07 last_updated: 2026-10-06 content_license: https://trendshare.org/about/disclaimer --- # What is a Good Annual Rate of Return? Source: https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-a-good-annual-rate-of-return Updated: 2026-10-06 **Quick Take:** A good annual return for long-term stock investing is typically **7-10% a year before inflation**. The US stock market has averaged about 10% a year, or roughly 7% after inflation. To truly build wealth, your returns should beat inflation (~3%) and taxes. Use the Trendshare value investment ROI calculator to see how your money compounds over time. What is a good annual rate of return: typically 7-10% a year for long-term stock investing before inflation (roughly 4-7% after inflation). Use the ROI calculator to model your goals. For decades, investors have asked what counts as a good return. The short answer: it depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Historically, the US stock market has averaged about 10% annually before inflation (about 7% after), though any single year can be far better or far worse. Safer vehicles like bonds or savings accounts usually return less. ## Why Rate of Return Matters Compounding interest feels like magic especially when your money grows every year. If you [invest $1000 at 5% simple interest](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/how-to-invest-1000-dollars), you'll have $1750 in 15 years. That's $750 in interest. If, instead, you invest at 5% annual [compound interest](https://www.investor.gov/additional-resources/free-financial-planning-tools/compound-interest-calculator), you'll have about $2079. Compounded monthly, you'll have about $2114. The real magic comes when you earn a *higher* rate of return on your investment. Instead of 5%, what if you could get an 8% interest rate? 10%? If instead you earn only 3% in a high-yield savings account, your wealth grows much more slowly. That gap between 3% and 8% compounds into a huge difference over decades. This matters because this is *your* money, set aside for education, retirement, or buying a house. That [money is leverage](https://outspeaking.com/words-of-business/the-usury-of-payday-loans.html); it buys you freedom. ## Typical Returns by Asset Class Different types of investments have different returns. Many of these differences depend on the investments themselves. For example, you might see a real estate holding grow in value at 6% year over year. Consider, though, that there's a fixed supply of real estate, and that not all parcels of land are the same. Would you want to trade an acre of land in Death Valley, California for an acre of land in downtown San Francisco? (Probably, but who would be on the opposite side of that trade?) Or consider a bond that gives you a reliable payout every quarter compared to a stock that pays no dividend. One may be more valuable than the other depending on your financial position. It's important to know what your goals are and why you're investing to evaluate if any opportunity's return and the time to return make sense in your situation. It's also important to be aware of market conditions. In 2022, buying bonds or Treasury bills turned out to be a poor investment as interest rates increased, because the market value of existing bonds decreased. On the other hand, buying land might have been a good investment as the desire for more housing increased. Do your homework! ## How to Calculate Your Effective Rate of Return After you choose your investing goals, you will have a target in mind. You know how much money and time you have to invest. You know the finish line. You have enough information to calculate what gets you from here to there. The magic of time and compounding interest will help. This is especially important for retirement planning; the earlier you start, the more a high return will pay off. The less time you have before you want to retire, the higher return you need. If you can sell something next year for $1100 and want to make a 10% profit on it, what should you pay for it now? The math is simple. Your price plus ten percent returns equals $1100. $1100 is 110% of your price. Divide $1100 by 110% (divide by 1.1) and you get $1000. This means you must pay no more than $1000 right now to get a 10% return when you sell. How do you calculate that 10%? Suppose you've invested $1000. In two years, you sell the investment for $1500 (great job!). You've made $500 in profit as an amazing 50% return. Take 15% of that profit away (don't forget the taxes you pay; $75 in long-term capital gains here), so you're left with $1425. That's a 42.5% return in two years. Not bad! Now account for two years of 3% inflation, and your $1425 buys only what about $1343 buys today. That 34% return after two years is still great, but it's a lot less than the $1500/50% you had when you started. (Then again, a 34% return over two years works out to about 16% a year, which would double your money in under 5 years. That's amazing, and far above the stock market's long-term average, so don't count on it!) The annual rate of return on an investment is the profit you make on that investment in a year. For every dollar you invest, how much do you get every year in return? The simple way to calculate this value is to look at a simple percentage. If you invested $100 and made $3, your return is $3/$100 or 3%. Remember the inflation, fees, and taxes picture you face. Factor them in. Depending on your investment goal and timeline, you'd like to know what a hypothetical million dollars will buy you in 10, 20, or 40 years. According to the [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), inflation has averaged about 3% a year over the past decade. It peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and was running at 3.4% in August 2026. The [historical stock market return](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050615/are-we-overestimating-future-returns.asp) data shows the S&P 500 averaged about 10.3% annually (before inflation) from 1957 to 2023, making it a useful benchmark for comparison. A good annual return on stocks beats inflation and taxes and builds your wealth. ### Investment Returns Comparison (October 2026) Different investment vehicles offer vastly different returns. Here's how major investment types compare in October 2026, based on current rates and long-run historical averages:
Investment Type Return (Annual, before tax and inflation) Risk Level Best For After Tax/Inflation*
[High-Yield Savings](https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/best-high-yield-interests-savings-accounts/) 3.5-4.5%** Very Low Emergency fund, short-term goals About 0%
[Treasury Bills (13-52 weeks)](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/treasury-bills/) 4.1-4.5%** Very Low Short-term cash, exempt from state tax 0-1%
[Municipal Bonds](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/inwsmuni.htm) 3.5-5.0%** Low Tax-free income, conservatives 0.5-2%
[I Bonds (Treasury)](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm) 4.26%** Very Low Inflation protection (1-year lock) About 1%
[Corporate Bonds](https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/understanding-investment-types/bonds) 5.5-6.5%** (investment grade) Low-Medium Income investors, 5-10 year horizon 1-2%
[S&P 500 Index](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/) About 10%*** Medium Long-term growth (10+ years) 5-6%
[Dividend Stocks](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-dividend-yield) Roughly market-like, plus a yield of about 3% Medium Income + growth, retirees 5-6%
[Value Stocks](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-value-investing) About 12-13% long-run† Medium-High Active investors, 3-5 year horizon About 8%
[Growth Stocks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/growthstock.asp) About 10% long-run† (much higher over the past decade) High-Very High Aggressive investors, high risk tolerance About 5%
Estimates in the last column subtract 3% inflation and assume a 15% long-term capital gains tax on stock returns and a 22% federal income tax rate on interest. Municipal bond interest is generally federal-tax-free. Treasury bill interest is exempt from state and local tax. The I Bond figure is the 0.90% fixed rate above inflation. Actual results depend on your tax bracket and account type. ** Rates as of early October 2026: top online savings rates (the national average is about 0.66%), market yields on T-bills, municipal bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds, and the I Bond composite rate for May-October 2026 (0.90% fixed plus inflation; resets November 1). *** Long-run S&P 500 average since 1957 (about 10.3%, depending on the end date). † Long-run annualized returns for US large-cap value and growth stocks since 1926 (Fama/French data); the gap between them varies widely by decade. Past returns don't guarantee future results. As you can see, the relationship between risk and return is clear: higher potential returns generally come with higher risk. A [high-yield savings account](https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/best-high-yield-interests-savings-accounts/) offers safety but roughly breaks even with inflation after taxes. Meanwhile, growth stocks have had stretches of exceptional returns (the past decade was one) but come with significant volatility and risk of loss. ### Real Portfolio Examples for Different Investor Profiles Understanding returns in theory is one thing. Seeing how they work in actual portfolios is another. Here are three realistic portfolio allocations based on risk tolerance and life stage, using actual ETFs you can buy today: #### 🛡️ Conservative Portfolio (about 5% Assumed Return) **Best for:** Retirees, risk-averse investors, 5-10 year time horizon **Allocation:** - 50% Bonds: [BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd) (about 4.1% yield) - 30% Dividend Stocks: [SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity)](https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schd) (about 3% yield; 7% assumed total return) - 10% REITs: [VNQ (Vanguard Real Estate)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vnq) (about 3.8% yield; 6% assumed total return) - 10% Cash/High-Yield Savings (about 4% yield) **Assumed annual return:** about 5% | **After tax/inflation:** about 1.5% $100,000 invested at 5% grows to about $162,900 in 10 years | Yield income: ~$315 a month before taxes #### ⚖️ Balanced Portfolio (about 8.5% Assumed Return) **Best for:** Mid-career professionals, moderate risk tolerance, 10-20 year horizon **Allocation:** - 50% S&P 500: [SPY (SPDR S&P 500)](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy) (10% long-run average) - 20% International Stocks: [VXUS (Vanguard Total International)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vxus) (8% assumed) - 20% Bonds: [BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd) (about 4.1% yield) - 10% Small-Cap Value: [VIOV (Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/viov) (10% assumed) **Assumed annual return:** about 8.5% | **After tax/inflation:** about 4% $100,000 invested at 8.4% grows to about $224,000 in 10 years | Doubles about every 8.6 years #### 🚀 Aggressive Portfolio (about 10.5% Assumed Return) **Best for:** Young investors (20s-30s), high risk tolerance, 20+ year horizon **Allocation:** - 40% Growth Stocks: [VUG (Vanguard Growth)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vug) (12% assumed) - 30% S&P 500: [VOO (Vanguard S&P 500)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo) (10% long-run average) - 15% Small-Cap Growth: [VBK (Vanguard Small-Cap Growth)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vbk) (10% assumed) - 10% Emerging Markets: [VWO (Vanguard Emerging Markets)](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vwo) (9% assumed) - 5% High-Yield Savings (about 4% yield, emergency fund) **Assumed annual return:** about 10.5% | **After tax/inflation:** about 6% $100,000 invested at 10.4% grows to about $269,000 in 10 years | Doubles about every 7 years Note: These portfolios use low-cost index ETFs with expense ratios of 0.03-0.15%. The return figures are round-number planning assumptions, not forecasts or promises. Stocks have averaged about 10% a year over the long run, and many of these funds did better than that over the past decade, but returns can be flat or negative for years. Yields are approximate (October 2026). Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your personal financial situation, tax status, and risk tolerance before investing. This is educational content, not personalized investment advice. ## Why Your Returns Must Beat Inflation You know what taxes and fees are. What's inflation? Prices tend to rise over time. Maybe you have a cable bill that keeps going up, or you remember when milk and gasoline both cost less than $2 per gallon. There are [many economic reasons why prices rise gradually over time](https://outspeaking.com/words-of-politics/what-is-currency-and-fiat-currency.html). This is normal economics. Inflation means that, over time, a dollar is worth a little bit less. Inflation has averaged about 2.6% a year since 2000, and 2% or 3% is a good rule of thumb. It isn't steady, though. The [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) tracks it officially: inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and in 2026 it rose again to 4.2% in May before easing to 3.4% in August. The operative word here is "time". If you're saving for retirement in 20 or 30 years, inflation will work against you. A million dollars is a lot of money, but it won't buy as much in 20 or 30 years as it will today. It would have bought a lot more 20 or 30 years ago too. If your investment grows more slowly than inflation, you're losing money because your buying power is decreasing. For example, if you need $1,000 a month to pay your expenses now and think those expenses will rise to $1,200 when you retire, you'll need to make $1,200 a month to pay your bills. Assuming inflation is between 2% and 3% annually (based on [Federal Reserve target rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14419.htm)), any investment that earns you money over the long term must make at least 3% a year just to break even. Remember that the relationship between the inflation rate and the stock market is complicated. Over long periods the market as a whole has tended to beat inflation, because company revenues and prices rise together. That's no guarantee for any individual stock, or for the market as a whole in any given year, however. In 2022 the S&P 500 lost about 18% while inflation peaked at 9.1%. ## Why Your Returns Must Beat Taxes Taxes are as inevitable as inflation. When you sell most kinds of investments, you'll have to pay taxes on any profit. The specific taxes you will pay depends on the type of investment, how long you held it, your other income, and where you live. For more details, either do the boring research yourself or consult a tax professional. The broad implication is similar to inflation, however. To calculate your *effective rate of return* (how your invested money is actually growing), you must factor in taxes. If, for example, you are subject to [US capital gains taxes](https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409), figure that you'll pay 15% taxes on the profit of any investment you sell if you hold it for more than a year. (The rate is 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on your income, and a 3.8% surtax applies at higher incomes. 15% applies to most investors.) The resulting amount is your effective profit. You can delay taxes (invest pre-tax income in something like an [employer-sponsored 401(k)](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/always-choose-employer-matching-401k-contributions) or a [SEP](https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/choosing-a-retirement-plan-sep), in the theory that your marginal tax rate will be lower in the future than it is now) or avoid taxes (invest post-tax income in a [Roth IRA](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/when-should-you-open-a-roth-ira) and avoid paying any taxes on gains in the future), but the government will eventually get its due. Plan for it. ## Investment Returns Must Beat Fees You're probably paying [broker fees](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/broker-fees) for every transaction. If you're investing in funds instead of stocks, you may be paying additional fees. In particular, mutual funds tend to have higher fees than [ETFs](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/should-you-invest-in-etfs). If an average fund return on investment is 5% annually and you're paying 2% in fees, you're only getting a 3% return and you need to look elsewhere. Major brokers such as Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard charge $0 commission for online stock and ETF trades. If you're paying no commission for an ETF and its expense ratio is low, you're already way ahead of investing in high-fee funds. ## Using ROI to Compare Investments ROI, or Return on Investment, measures the efficiency of an investment. For every dollar you put in, what kind of profit can you expect? Use this ROI percentage to compare investments, even if they're not otherwise similar. For example, buying a [blue chip](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-market-capitalization) stock that raises its dividend every year is different from buying a small cap stock that invests its revenue in growth. The risk profiles for these companies are different. The research you need to do is different between them. Yet comparing only ROI can give you a sense of where you want to focus. Furthermore, your target rate of return determines which opportunities make sense for you. If you can't buy a stock at the right price, move on and find something better. Assume that the [S&P 500 has averaged a 7-10% return per year over the past 50 or 60 years](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/buy-the-s&p-index-fund). If that's enough, buy it. Otherwise, you need to find a better investment. The average return for most investors is lower than the market's, sometimes much lower, because of fees, taxes, and poorly timed buying and selling. A savings account at a typical bank (the national average is about 0.66%) loses money after taxes and inflation. A high-yield savings account, CD, or money market account paying about 4% roughly breaks even after taxes and inflation. Treasury bills pay about 4.1% for 13-week bills (early October 2026), are exempt from state and local tax, and currently yield a bit more than inflation (3.4%) before federal tax, though they trailed inflation in 2021 and 2022. Even the most conservative, tax-free investment strategy of buying [municipal bonds](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/inwsmuni.htm) can get you 4-5% tax free every year (depending on whether you pay state or local taxes on your returns). That's 1-2% after inflation: a mediocre return, all things considered, but very conservative. You'll double your money in 35-72 years. You can do better. Maybe 10% after taxes and inflation is your goal. Assume that inflation is an annual 3% and capital gains are 15%. A 15% return *before* inflation and taxes leaves you with only about 9.5%. (If you pay 20% in taxes, you'll end up with about 8.7%.) You would need roughly 15-16% before taxes and inflation to net 10%, which very few investors achieve consistently. Remember, this rule of thumb applies whether you're investing in real estate, savings accounts, mutual funds, or even long-term life insurance. Factor in what you want to make, account for fees and taxes, and then work backwards. ## How ROI Calculation Fits into Personal Finance Of course, this means nothing if you're investing money you'd otherwise be using to pay off credit cards. Credit card interest is high: the Federal Reserve reports an average APR of 22.15% on accounts charged interest in the second quarter of 2026. You would have to earn more than that after taxes and inflation to come out ahead by investing instead. Your best personal finance move is to pay off any personal loans, credit cards, or other debt which holds an interest rate higher than your expected investment returns. You won't have to pay any taxes on this, and you'll be improving your monthly cash flow. With everything else equal, paying of a loan with a 10% APR is better than getting 10% on an investment with the same money. Consider that before you sink all your available cash into stocks or funds. ## Active ROI Targets for Value Investors ### Worked example: a 50/30/20 Vanguard ETF portfolio This table shows a worked example using real trailing returns from fund providers (Vanguard) as published on Yahoo Finance. Numbers are trailing returns (annualized) as of **2025-10-20**. Use these to estimate the historical performance of a 50% VTI / 30% BND / 20% VXUS allocation. This is a dated example; check the fund pages for current figures.
Ticker Fund 1yr 3yr (ann.) 5yr (ann.) 10yr (ann.) As-of
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 17.34% 24.09% 15.66% 14.66% 2025-10-20
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 2.90% 4.94% -0.46% 1.84% 2025-10-20
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF 17.18% 20.84% 10.43% 8.36% 2025-10-20
**Weighted portfolio (50/30/20)** **12.98%** **17.70%** **9.78%** **9.55%** **2025-10-20**
Source: trailing returns (annualized) shown are from a Yahoo Finance snapshot dated **2025-10-20**. Vanguard fund pages for VTI, BND, and VXUS are provided as primary provenance links; see the Dataset below for distribution URLs. Broad-market S&P 500 level from FRED (observed 2025-11-21). #### How we calculated the weighted returns We computed the portfolio return as a weighted average of each fund's annualized trailing return. Formula: `Portfolio return = w1*R1 + w2*R2 + w3*R3`, where w are allocation weights and R are per-fund returns. For the 1-year column: `0.5*17.34% + 0.3*2.90% + 0.2*17.18% = 12.98%` (rounded). Note: these are historical trailing annualized returns, not forecasts. Rounding may cause small differences. **Data notes:** Trailing returns come from Yahoo Finance snapshots dated 2025-10-20; portfolio values are computed as weighted averages (see calculation section). Always verify current returns on fund pages. CSV provided for reproducibility; cite the article for context and details. [Value investing](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-value-investing) helps you find good opportunities. The best way to make money in the stock market is to buy good investments at great prices and sell at a profit. Figuring out the right price for a stock requires you to know how much you want to earn when you sell it. A return of 15% a year would be exceptional for an [active investor](https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/what-is-active-investing). It's aggressive, and most professional managers don't achieve it: about 84% of active US large-cap funds trailed the S&P 500 over the 10 years ending December 2024. Value investors aim for it by putting in the time to look for bargains. For reference, 12% a year after taxes and inflation would double your buying power every six years. More importantly, a return at that rate would beat the market. That's the goal, though most investors don't reach it. If you [look at the raw data for the average rate of return for the stock market](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/), you'll see 10.3% as the historical average (1957-2023), though individual years and decades vary widely. The [NYU Stern School of Business historical return data](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/histretSP.xls) confirms this long-term performance. Some decades are much better. Some are much worse. For any individual investment, you should also look at average returns. For example, the [S&P 500 average return](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp) can swing wildly from year to year; if you invested on January 1, 2022 and took your profits or losses on December 31, 2022, you'd have lost 18%. The year before, you'd have gained 28.7%. The market then rebounded, returning 26.3% in 2023 and 25.0% in 2024 (total returns with dividends reinvested). Check the historical average returns to estimate your potential returns and measure risk and likelihood of any wild swings. Anyone promising a reliable and higher investment return is taking big risks. No reputable investment advisor will stand behind this word. The best investment returns do take on risk, but *repeatability* is more important over the long term than one huge winning streak followed by mediocre or terrible performance. Use a benchmark of 8% for a good stock ROI. This is a good way to objectively assess the potential profitability of your investments. Putting your money in a simple index fund and letting it grow will return you an average 8-10% a year before inflation over the long term, if the market continues to behave as it has for the past several decades (it may not). If you're going through the work of choosing your own investments, compare your results to that benchmark. If you can't beat it consistently, a low-cost index fund may serve you better.